The Botwell Warren

Luton 7/4
Crawley 9/2
Grimsby 7/1
York City 11/1
Darlington 12/1
Rushden 12/1
Newport 16/1
Cambridge United 16/1
Mansfield 18/1
AFC Wimbledon 20/1
Fleetwood Town 20/1
Wrexham 20/1
Kidderminster 28/1
Kettering 40/1
Southport 40/1
Barrow 66/1
Altrincham 80/1
Bath City 100/1
Tamworth 100/1
Hayes & Yeading Utd 100/1
Forest Green 125/1
Gateshead 125/1
Eastbourne 125/1
Histon 125/1

We're not favourates to go down

Agree Luton are favorites to go up , but Darlington at 12/1 is a good bet............worth a tenner. I believe our chances of promotion are rather limited.

Darlington and York are both around at 15 (14 to 1) on Betfair. Kitkat Crescent a tough place to get anything from as we can testify.

H&Y are a mighty 250 for anyone looking to pay their mortgage off early when we win the darn thing!

FYI it's reverted back to Bootham Crescent now.

The bookies seem to have jumped on the Crawley bandwagon, can't see them instantly making a title-winning side.
Are those odds for champions or promotion?

I'd fancy a flutter on York personally, it's rare that a club comes down from League Two and goes straight back up again. (because League 2 is shiiiiiiiiiiitttttttttttttttt)

I think Newport will finish above Crawley.

Firstly league 2 cannot be what you say it is, as that is where Bury play.

Secondly I have not had the chance to run the model yet, but I suspect that our odds are not worth it. Will let you know the probs when I have calculated them.

btw before anyone else gets into some argument about someone else being the maths master on this site, just bear in mind that I made over £1000 on betting on the world cup!!!

PS - I strongly suspect that we will not start the season well, as last year - because our team will take a few weeks to settle. I would therefore wait a few weeks if you want to bet on HandY...

When are you getting the round in?
I made £50 and spent it all on Sky Vegas like an idiot.

Starky has and always will be the Maths God of this site Caleb. Being a gambler does not put you even in the same league. I find it hard to believe you won a grand during the World Cup, as there was to many unusual results. New Zealand v Italy for an example. You base your gambling on mathmatical probability, which in my opinion is to clinical and not allowing for certain factors ie weather/climate size of match ie World Cup semi final .......a team could freeze in a match of this size.
I believe you had one bet before the finals ............Spain to win

I didn't bet on Spain until the end of the tournament as the odds on them were not any good.
At the start of the tournament my model said that Holland and Germany were underpriced and so I bet on them. I had £30 on a Holland Germany final at 50/1.
Fortunately I managed to lay this off just before the Germany Spain game by that bet on Spain.

I also had a number of bets on individual scores - I placed 240 bets on match scores - around 4/5 bets per game - where the odds were better than the probabilities. I won 13 of these 240, however as the odds were fairly good - I made quite a bit. I had £1 on Portugal to beat N Korea 7-0 and £4 on Germany to beat Argentina 4-0 for example.

I was lucky to some degree with the Germany Holland Final bet, but it was based on quite a good model.

No rounds, I'm afraid - the money that I have not already spent, I am saving up to invest in my new model which will be hopefully up and running for the new season.

Incidentally, what has this Sharkey fellow done that sets him up as a Deity???

So was it a profit of £1000 or just a return of £1000?

By the way you may be good at this probability shabang but the country is Netherlands not Holland!

Dr. H, why is it Netherlands and not Holland?

I've done a PhD thesis in maths and am now a Doctor, just like Dr H.